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Forecasting Mortality Rate by Singular Spectrum Analysis. |
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| | آخرین بروزرسانی: 1397/10/22 | |
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 Mahmoudvand, R.; Alehosseini, F.; Rodrigues, C. P. (2015).
Forecasting Mortality Rate by Singular Spectrum Analysis.
RevStat-Statistical Journal, Vol. 13, No. 3, pp. 193-206.
Abstract:
Singular spectrum analysis (SSA) is a relatively new and powerful non-parametric time series analysis technique that has demonstrated its capability in forecasting different time series in various disciplines. In this paper, we study the feasibility of using the SSA to perform mortality forecasts. Comparisons are made with the Hyndman–Ullah model, which is a new powerful tool in the field of mortality forecasting, and will be considered as a benchmark to evaluate the performance of the SSA for mortality forecasting. We use both SSA and Hyndman–Ullah models to obtain 10 forecasts for the period 2000–2009 in nine European countries including Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Italy, The Netherlands, Norway, Sweden and Switzerland. Computational results show a superior accuracy of the SSA forecasting algorithms, when compared with the Hyndman–Ullah approach.
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| کلیدواژه ها: Hyndman–Ullah model | Singular spectrum analysis | Mortality rate | |
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اطلاعات تماس
نشانی پستی: تهران، اوین، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، دانشکده علوم ریاضی، گروه آمار
صندوق پستی: 1983969411
تلفن: 22419430(021)
آدرس الکترونیکی: ir.actuary@gmail.com
کلیه حقوق این سایت متعلق به انجمن محاسبات بیمه و مالی ایران بوده و استفاده از مطالب آن با ذکر منبع بلامانع است.
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