افزایش سن بازنشستگی چرا؟

Why are we even considering raising the retirement age?1

Population Issues Working Group (PIWG)

Scientific Committee

International Actuarial Association

Committee Meetings, Vancouver

October 14-18

Morteza Aalabaf-Sabaghi2

E.C.O. College of Insurance, Allameh Tabatabai University

Assia Billig

Office of the Chief Actuary (OSFI, Canada)

Sam Gutterman

 Director and Consulting Actuary, PricewaterhouseCoopers, Chicago, USA

Martin Stevenson

Institute of Actuaries of Australia, Fellow and past President

Abstract

Increases in longevity, especially at older ages, in combination with falling rates of fertility, have contributed to the aging of the labour force and falling dependency ratios (the declining share of the work force relative to the retired sector), both with respect to the current work force and future generations. Gains in life expectancy are having and will have substantial effects on different groups of individuals, families, labour markets and financial condition of social security systems, pension funds, and health care systems, to mention a few. Multifaceted issues are involved, including cohort effects, intergenerational equity issues, labour issues, unemployment, health care changes, and changing lifestyles. For pension systems, either social security, employer-sponsored plans or individual savings, increasing longevity means a relatively shorter accumulation and longer de-accumulation periods.

1 This chapter is part of a report prepared for the International Actuarial Association, available at http://www.actuaries.org/index.cfm?lang=EN&DSP=CTTEES_PIWG&ACT=DOCUMENTS

2 E.C.O. College of Insurance, Allameh Tabatabai University, No.14, Seventh Street, Khalid Islamboli Avenue, Tehran 14877, Iran. Tel. (009821) 88725614, fax (009821) 88725708.

E-mail: aalabaf@eco.ac.ir, maalabaf@yahoo.com